If you are a short-term trader, then Bitcoin will probably out for you, but if you are a longer-term trader, you will be waiting for momentum.
Bitcoin went back and forth on Friday as we continue to dance around just below the $40,000 level. That being said, the market is in the midst of a larger consolidation area that has to be paid close attention to. The 50-day EMA sits just above recent trading near the $42,000 level. It is sloping lower, and it should offer a significant amount of selling pressure as well.
The $40,000 level has been an area of interest multiple times, so it is not a huge surprise to see that we see order flow here. It is worth also noting that it looks as if the most recent trading has been compressing a bit as far as its range, so we might be getting ready to make a relatively big move. That could very well be a situation where once the Federal Reserve meeting comes next week, we may have a bigger move. After all, a lot of what we have seen recently has been in reaction to the tightening of monetary policy, and that is something that risk appetite does not like.
Bitcoin is being traded by large institutions now, so it does make sense that it is starting to act like a traditional market. In other words, as it is far out on the risk spectrum, as long as money is tight, it is going to be difficult to see a situation where Bitcoin takes off. However, if the Federal Reserve sounds very dovish and steps back from its hawkish rhetoric after the meeting next week, that could be the fuel that Bitcoin needs.
I think at this point in time we are going to have to see some type of larger candlestick in order to give us an idea as to whether or not we are going to break above the $45,000 level, or if we’re going to break down below the $35,000 level. At this point, the market will make a much bigger move, so as long as we are between those two levels, it is likely that we will see more back-and-forth than anything else. If you are a short-term trader, then Bitcoin will probably out for you, but if you are a longer-term trader, you will be waiting for momentum.