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Czech central bank raises 2022 inflation forecast, cuts GDP outlook

© Reuters.

PRAGUE (Reuters) – The Czech central bank on Thursday released the following forecasts in its updated macroeconomic outlook.

GDP 2022 2023

pct changed y/y 0.8 (3.0) 3.6 (3.4)

AVG 3-MO PRIBOR 2022 2023

pct changed y/y 7.0 (4.3) 5.1 (3.3)

AVG EXCHANGE RATE 2022 2023

CZK/EUR 24.2 (24.1) 24.3 (23.9)

AVG CONSUMER INFLATION 2022 2023

pct changed y/y 13.1 (8.5) 4.1 (2.3)

NOTE. Brackets denote previous forecasts published in Feb.

The forecast sees inflation at 3.8% in the second quarter of 2023, and at 2.7% in the third quarter of that year.

The previous inflation forecast released in February pegged annual CPI at 3.0% in the first quarter of 2023 and 2.3% in the second quarter of 2023.

The central bank always forecasts inflation for 12-18 months ahead, the time it believes it takes for monetary policy decisions to filter fully through to the economy.

However, at the May 5 meeting, the board considered also a scenario with a “more distant monetary policy horizon” which “abstracts from inflation, which is being directly affected by strong external price shocks”, the central bank said.

Czech central bank raises 2022 inflation forecast, cuts GDP outlook

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