Ultimately, I think we will get short-term rallies that will get sold into at the first signs of exhaustion.
Ethereum markets bounced a bit on Tuesday as the $2500 level seems to have held again. That being said, you can still make an argument for a descending triangle, so I am not quite sold on the idea of buying in any significant amount at this point. After all, crypto, in general, has been struggling, and it is difficult to see that we are suddenly going to turn around.
Ethereum is a project that I believe in for the long term, but that does not necessarily mean that I think you should jump into it at this level with a huge amount of trading capital. The $2500 level does make quite a bit of sense as a support level because it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we have seen support previously. However, monetary policy tightening around the world is going to have a detrimental effect on risk appetite, and it should be understood that as a lot of institutional money is flowing into these markets, crypto will start to behave more like a traditional market.
The size of the candlestick does take out the body of the previous candlestick, so that is a good sign. That being said, we have recently formed the so-called “death cross”, when the 50-day EMA drops below the 200-day EMA. This is typically thought of as a longer-term bearish signal, although it does tend to happen quite late in the game. More importantly, the 50-day EMA sits at the $3000 level, so I think that is probably the top of the short-term range. Furthermore, you can make an argument for the downtrend line from the descending triangle crossing through that area right now.
If we were to break down below the $2400 level, then I think it would open up the possibility of a move down to the $2000 level. The $2000 level will have a lot of fanfare around it, as it is such a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be writing about in news media and the like. Breaking down below the $2000 level opens up “crypto winter” at that point, offering longer-term people like myself an opportunity to accumulate huge positions again. Ultimately, I think we will get short-term rallies that will get sold into at the first signs of exhaustion.