© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Oil barrels are pictured at the site of Canadian group Vermilion Energy in Parentis-en-Born, France, October 13, 2017. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau
OSLO (Reuters) -Global oil prices could rise to $200 a barrel if Europe and the United States ban imports of Russian oil, analysts at Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said on Tuesday.
Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since 2008 on fears of a Western ban on Russian oil imports while a return of Iranian crude to the market remains far from certain.
The global Brent oil benchmark currently trades at $129 a barrel, up from about $97 before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Oil prices could double from pre-conflict levels, but it wouldn’t be as bad as during the 1973 oil embargo, when oil prices tripled, said Jarand Rystad at the consultancy.
Rystad Energy analysts said the $200 estimate was based on an assumption that Western sanctions could remove about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude.
Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter, ships about 7 million bpd of crude and oil products combined.
The United States is expected to announce a ban on Russian oil imports as soon as Tuesday, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Last week Rystad had predicted that Brent crude would climb above $130 a barrel because Russian exports were to plunge by 1 million bpd as a consequence of previously announced sanctions and voluntary actions by companies.
Oil could hit $200 a barrel, says Rystad Energy
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