Trading Support and Resistance – 06 March 2022

This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Monthly Forecast March 2022

For the month of February, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair will fall in value. The final performance to date of this forecast was very profitable, as follows:

Currency Pair

Forecast Direction

Interest Rate Differential

Final Performance

EUR/USD

Short ?

+0.25% (0.25% – 0.00%)

+2.71%

For the month of March, I again forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will fall in value.

Weekly Forecast 6th March 2022

In my previous forecast last week, I forecasted that the GBP/NZD currency cross was likely to rise in value, as it fell so strongly against its long-term trend over the previous week. Unfortunately, its price fell again by 2.99%.

I make no forecast for next week, as there were no sufficiently strong counter-trend price movements over the past week.

The Forex market saw its level of directional volatility increase strongly last week, with 78% of all the important currency pairs or crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to remain very strong or even increase further over this coming week, due to dramatic events in Ukraine as the Russian invasion continues.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Swiss franc, and relative weakness in the euro.

You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.

Currency Pair

Key Support / Resistance Levels

AUD/USD

Support: 0.7284, 0.7238, 0.7207, 0.7153

Resistance: 0.7390, 0.7430, 0.7439, 0.7454

EUR/USD

Support: 1.0870, 1.0838, 1.0710, 1.0639

Resistance: 1.1050, 1.1068, 1.1091, 1.1142

GBP/USD

Support: 1.3141, 1.3079, 1.3005, 1.2785

Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3316, 1.3357, 1.3458

USD/JPY

Support: 114.55, 114.23, 113.07, 111.55

Resistance: 114.82, 115.29, 115.56, 115.87

AUD/JPY

Support: 84.27, 83.76, 82.41, 81.89

Resistance: 85.20, 87.46, 88.43, 89.49

EUR/JPY

Support: 124.24, 123.91, 123.54, 123.39

Resistance: 125.61, 127.61, 127.83, 128.76

USD/CAD

Support: 1.2720, 1.2683, 1.2654, 1.2535

Resistance: 1.2812, 1.2901, 1.2959, 1.3025

USD/CHF

Support: 0.9072, 0.9000, 0.8969, 0.8943

Resistance: 0.9291, 0.9370, 0.9387, 0.9438

That is all for this week. You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.