I believe at this point we are going to see a lot of back and forth on short-term charts.
Monero rallied a bit on Thursday to reach the $192.50 level. The $200 level just above will offer a significant amount of resistance based upon psychology, but probably not much beyond that. If we were to break above the $200 level, then the next target will be $210, where the 200-day EMA currently sits.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $180 level, an area that has been important multiple times. While I am not a big believer in crypto at the moment, this does look like it is in a situation where we may have a bit of a recovery. If we were to break down below the $180 level, then it could open up quite a bit of selling pressure, especially if it ends up being a major “risk off” move.
Keep in mind that tightening monetary policy does not typically work out for crypto, so it makes sense that we would see a failure at this point. However, the market looks as if it is trying to ignore all of that, and simply go higher. While I am not ready to get bullish again, the reality is that the stock market and various currency markets seem to be ignoring the Federal Reserve as well. I think it is basically Wall Street trying to tell the world that they do not believe that the Federal Reserve will do anything like they are preaching.
This is going to set up a very interesting battle, as it comes down to whether or not the Federal Reserve really will tighten interest rates for the next seven meetings. Because they may not, people are starting to bet on risky assets such as Monero. Pay close attention to Bitcoin, because it obviously has a huge “knock on effect” when it comes to crypto in general. If we were to break above the 200-day EMA in Monero, at that point you have to assume that we are in fact in an uptrend and going to go looking towards the $300 level eventually. In general, this is a market that I think is going to see more volatility ahead, not less. I believe at this point we are going to see a lot of back and forth on short-term charts.